The small modular reactor (SMR) market could support the decarbonisation of at least 11 industrial sectors that make up the majority of industrial energy demand by 2050 in North America and Europe with a potential market of 700GW by 2050, an independent study published today has found.
The study, entitled ‘A new nuclear world: how small modular reactors can power industry’, has been published by Urenco, who commissioned LucidCatalyst to produce it to further industry understanding of this evolving market. The report is supported by World Nuclear Association.
The study sets out how the full potential of the SMR market in the industrial energy space can be unlocked, representing a $0.5–1.5 trillion investment opportunity, as energy-intensive sectors face mounting pressure to secure reliable, cost-competitive energy whilst meeting decarbonisation commitments.
The key findings of the study include that:
- SMRs could reach 700GW of capacity by 2050 (under the Transformation Scenario involving factory style mass manufacturing approaches to constructing SMRs). This sizable opportunity represents nearly double the current global nuclear capacity, and would expand nuclear capacity beyond the projected goal to triple conventional deployment.
- Simultaneous improvements across six critical market drivers would enable this outcome: a ‘product-based’ approach to manufacturing and licensing, freeing up sites for SMRs; stronger policy and financing support, and a more mature reactor developer environment.
- The top five industries representing more than 75% of the 700GW opportunity are: synthetic fuels for aviation and maritime, coal repowering, data centres and chemicals.
- Other sectors such as food and beverage (43 GW), iron and steel (33 GW) and district energy (33 GW) also represent sizeable opportunities, with district energy demand being more prevalent in Europe. Upstream oil and gas is a more prevalent opportunity in North America.
- With improvements to current construction methods alone, 120GW of capacity could still be achieved by 2050 (under the Programmatic scenario, involving enhanced Government support and improved project management).
Four supply scenarios are presented: Current; Programmatic (see above); Breakout (involving shipyard manufacturing to achieve scalability, predictability and cost effectiveness); and Transformation (see above).
There are also four demand scenarios reflecting varying policy support and customer demand: Energy Cost (based on long-term gas prices); Security (based on energy security premiums); and Announced Pledges, and Net Zero (based on strength of policy support and decarbonisation commitments).
Boris Schucht, Chief Executive of Urenco Group, said:
“Decarbonising industry presents a tremendous challenge that we must all embrace if we are to achieve net zero by 2050 or sooner.
“We believe the new-nuclear SMR market holds one of the solutions to this problem: flexible, adaptable, safe technologies that can produce clean energy consistently and affordably.
“This study acknowledges that with a strong focus on enabling delivery, SMRs can be maximised to their fullest and most competitive potential, significantly enhancing the ability of the nuclear industry to make an important contribution to energy security and net zero goals.”
Kirsty Gogan, Managing Partner of Lucid Catalyst, said:
“We’re witnessing a transformation in how nuclear energy services can be delivered to industrial customers. The innovations in manufacturing, licensing, and siting that this study identifies as being critical for enabling scale are already emerging in the market.
“With the right policy support and industry coordination across six critical areas, small modular reactors can provide a net-zero solution for energy-intensive industries requiring highly reliable, competitive, and scalable, emissions-free heat and power.”
King Lee, Head of Policy & Industry Engagement at World Nuclear Association, said:
“This study highlights the scale of opportunity for nuclear energy to support decarbonisation of a wide range of industrial sectors.
“To realise the full potential of nuclear energy would require new regulatory frameworks and production and deployment models to unlock the economy and scale of implementation far beyond current projections.”
Source: Urenco
