Neso published its Future Energy Scenarios: Pathways to Net Zero (FES 2050) this week, which includes pathways showing “the scale of work that remains,” needed to achieve net zero by 2050, according to Neso strategy and policy director Claire Dykta.
“Change won’t happen overnight and success relies on matching the pace and ambition of clean power, while looking beyond the power sector and beyond 2030,” Dykta added.
“This means not only transforming our energy infrastructure but enabling homes and businesses to switch to low carbon energy sources for heat and transport, putting consumers at the heart of a new energy system and in control of the energy they use.”
Massive new nuclear build ambitions steering electricity assumptions
FES 2050 includes assumptions about a range of areas in the energy network. In its section on nuclear, it says: “Nuclear power will play an important role in achieving a clean power system by 2030 and beyond, through a new generation of nuclear plants that will replace retiring capacity and meet growing demand as the economy electrifies.”
It notes the fact that most of Great Britain’s nuclear plants are due to retire by 2030, subject to some receiving life extensions pending approval by the Office for Nuclear Regulation. It also mentions the fact that the Sizewell C final investment decision has still not been achieved.
Scotland currently does not allow any new nuclear power plants to be built.
On SMRs, it says: “39-59% of the installed nuclear capacity is represented by SMRs in the pathways.”
The pathways include “falling behind” at the low end with just 10.4GW of installed nuclear capacity online by 2050, whereas 10.9GW are expected under the “hydrogen scenario” pathway; 14.2GW is expected under the “holistic transition” pathway and the high-end “electric engagement” scenario assumed 21.6GW would be installed.
Neso’s projections for nuclear capacity in the UK under different scenario pathways
In the case that the UK follows the “electric engagement” pathway, Neso said that it expected 59% of 21,560MW of total installed nuclear capacity by 2050 to be provided by SMRs, i.e. 12,720MW of installed SMR capacity by 2050.
Most SMR designs are around 300MW, but Great British Energy – Nuclear (GBE-N) SMR competition winner Rolls-Royce SMR’s reactor design is 470MW. The first three SMRs in the UK, which are the only confirmed so far, will provide 1,410MW.
Reaching the 12,720MW of SMR capacity by 2050 envisioned in the “electric engagement” pathway would require 38 more 300MW SMRs or 24 more 470MW Rolls-Royce SMRs, or – most likely – a mixture.
Even in Neso’s more restrictive pathways, the number of SMRs envisioned is notable.
The lower ambition “falling behind” pathway assumes 3,760MW of electricity capacity to be provided by SMRs by 2050. On top of the three confirmed Rolls-Royce SMRs, this means either another eight smaller 300MW SMRs, or another five Rolls-Royce SMRs of 470MW, or somewhere in between with a mixture.
| Scenario name | Total nuclear by 2050 | SMR capacity by 2050 | Number of SMRs* |
| Hydrogen evolution | 10,910MW | 4,230MW (39%) | 9 to 13 |
| Electric engagement | 21,560MW | 12,710MW (59%) | 27 to 41 |
| Holistic transition | 14,200MW | 7,520MW (53%) | 16 to 23 |
| Falling behind | 10,440MW | 3,760MW (36%) | 8 to 11 |
*Assuming first three are 470MW Rolls-Royce SMRs providing 1,410MW
First-of-a-Kind technology recognised as strategic risk to SMR programme
One of the five risk mitigations it proposed for this was to appoint a backup SMR developer in addition to the primary developer. It later quietly dropped this idea.
Source: New Civil Engineer
