A rightward shift in German politics may not have been decisive enough to have a major effect on energy and climate policies.
The center-right Christian Democratic Union won the general election on Sunday with promises to restrict immigration, reduce taxes and make energy more affordable. The party, whose leader, Friedrich Merz, is poised to become the nation’s next chancellor, also campaigned on a willingness to reverse the country’s phaseout of nuclear power.
The Christian Democrats’s vote share of 28.5 percent fell short of a strong win, which limits its ability to make substantial changes. Germany has been a global leader in making a transition away from fossil fuels and a key player in international climate treaties.
“The story of tonight is that we have a government that has a fresh mandate but a weak mandate, but goes into a situation where they actually need a strong mandate,” Jan Techau, director of Europe for the Eurasia Group, said on the German television network DW News.
Merz said he will begin talks to form a coalition with the center-left Social Democratic Party, which finished a disappointing third place. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the current Social Democrats leader, will continue in a caretaker role for a few weeks or months until Merz forms a government.
“My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA,” Merz said on Sunday, noting that the Trump administration is “largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
That perceived indifference didn’t stop Trump from weighing in on the results.
“LOOKS LIKE THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY IN GERMANY HAS WON THE VERY BIG AND HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ELECTION,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social. “MUCH LIKE THE USA, THE PEOPLE OF GERMANY GOT TIRED OF THE NO COMMON SENSE AGENDA, ESPECIALLY ON ENERGY AND IMMIGRATION, THAT HAS PREVAILED FOR SO MANY YEARS. THIS IS A GREAT DAY FOR GERMANY, AND FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA UNDER THE LEADERSHIP OF A GENTLEMAN NAMED DONALD J. TRUMP. CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL—MANY MORE VICTORIES TO FOLLOW!!!”
While the CDU increased its vote share by a few points from the previous election, the greatest surge came from the far-right Alternative for Germany, known as the AfD, which doubled its share to 20.8 percent and finished second. (The CDU’s total includes votes for the Christian Social Union, an affiliated party in the German state of Bavaria.)
The country’s mainstream parties have said they will not allow the AfD to join the governing coalition because of concerns about far-right extremism. The AfD has argued for a reversal of Germany’s energy transition and proposed construction of new coal-fired power plants.
Key people in the Trump administration, including Elon Musk and Vice President JD Vance, have spoken favorably about the AfD.
The Green Party finished fourth and will likely not be part of the next government after having been part of Scholz’s coalition. The party finished third in 2021.
The socialist Left Party nearly doubled its support and finished in fifth place, demonstrating how the far ends of both the left and the right managed to gain ground.
Climate Policies Expected to Continue
Drastic change in German energy and environmental policy is unlikely, said Sascha Müller-Kraenner, the top executive of Deutsche Umwelthilfe, a Berlin-based environmental advocacy organization.
“What I expect is a lower level of ambition, but otherwise a lot of continuity,” he said.
He noted that the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats were coalition partners for most of the tenure of Angela Merkel, the former leader of the Christian Democrats, who was chancellor from 2005 to 2021.
He thinks one factor that will lead to continuity is that key organizations in the business community are supportive of the energy transition. For example, BDEW, a trade group for energy and water industries, said on Sunday that the country needs a “consistent and reliable regulatory framework” on energy policy.
But there are some unanswered questions about how Merz will approach this. Among them is whether he will cut or redirect Germany’s budget for supporting international climate programs, Müller-Kraenner said.
One of the dangers with the new government is that the parties will be too far apart on key issues to get much done, said Vera Trappmann, a Leeds University Business School professor who writes about the sociology of climate change.
“A lot of the public wants climate action, but during this election campaign, nobody was talking about it,” she said.
Trappmann, who grew up in Germany, has concerns that the new coalition will be unable to agree on much, which could lead to government gridlock that the AfD could exploit to make gains in the next election.
“It will be a difficult period,” she said.
While the Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have a history of working together, she questions whether Merz possesses Merkel’s knack for managing a coalition and passing an agenda.
Could Nuclear Make a Comeback?
The Christian Democrats campaigned on an energy agenda that emphasized affordability and reliability.
“We are expanding grids, storage and all renewables and are focusing on affordability and security of supply,” the party said in its election manifesto. “Only more supply will lower prices.”
Supporters of nuclear power have been pleased that the Christian Democrats’s agenda included an openness to nuclear power, more than a decade after Merkel’s government adopted a nuclear phaseout plan. The phaseout, which has led to the shutdown of all of the country’s nuclear power plants, was in response to anti-nuclear sentiment that had long existed in Germany and was amplified by concerns about the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan.
“We are sticking to the nuclear energy option,” the Christian Democrats said in their current manifesto. “We are focusing on research into fourth and fifth generation nuclear energy, small modular reactors and fusion power plants. We are examining the possibility of restarting operations at the nuclear power plants that were recently shut down.”
Trappmann said she has doubts about whether nuclear power will return to Germany because renewables are a much less expensive option and any proposal would face substantial public opposition.
But electing a government that is open to nuclear energy is a step toward resuming use of the power source, even if there are many additional steps before a plant would be operating.
Source: Inside Climate News
