A new German compound noun is currently gaining traction in international news: Dunkelflaute. It describes weather that is cloudy and windless — in other words, the kind of conditions that highlight the vulnerabilities of renewable power production. Germany is currently experiencing a prolonged spell with stark consequences for itself and its European neighbours.
The Dunkelflaute began to make headlines last week when the shortages in renewable electricity production caused a spike of wholesale prices. At times a megawatt hour cost up to €1000 — the highest level recorded in 18 years.
In theory, Germany’s energy system is designed to be flexible since solar and wind energy fluctuate so much. Between May and August this year, Germany produced a quarter of its electricity through solar energy. But in November it was only 4.3%.
In theory, increasing wind in the autumn and winter months is supposed to pick up the shortfall. But when the worst-case scenario happens and a Dunkelflaute hits in the winter months when energy consumption is at its highest, fossil fuels are supposed to step in.
Since the war in Ukraine has seen Germany’s access to cheap gas from Russia cut, Europe’s largest economy relies on the dirtiest fossil fuel of them all. In November over 30% of Germany’s electricity was produced burning coal — a fuel Germany wants to phase out by 2038 at the latest. By contrast, Britain shut its last coal-fired power station this year.
Falling back on gas is also tricky since Germany no longer gets it on tap from Russia and had to replace it with more expensive alternatives, mostly from Norway and the US. In early November, Germany’s gas reserves were still 98% full. Within weeks, they have dropped to 85%. Now even oil had to be burnt at maximum capacity for electricity production.
Still, Germany’s fossil fuel plants haven’t delivered enough, and imports were ramped up from neighbouring countries like France and Poland. Data from November showed that nearly a fifth of imported electricity was made from fossil fuels and another 18% from nuclear energy. The latter seems particularly bizarre since Germany switched its last nuclear reactors off last year. For context: at their peak in the early 2000s, German nuclear plants produced a third of the electricity the country needed.
In order to facilitate its ideologically driven withdrawal from nuclear energy and meet domestic climate targets on paper, Germany has increasingly banked on importing energy from other countries even if its neighbours produce this in ways Berlin frowns upon. France produces 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy and Poland generates three quarters from fossil fuels, the vast majority from coal.
Other countries are increasingly concerned about what it means if Europe’s most populous country with its rapacious industry keeps importing more electricity than it exports. This is especially an issue during Dunkelflaute moments since Germany now proudly produces the majority of its electricity through wildly fluctuating renewables.
Norway is particularly affected. Last year, Germany received 43% of its gas from the Scandinavian country. It’s also one of the biggest source countries for electricity imports to Germany. As a result of the spike in German demand, energy prices in Norway have shot up too. On Thursday, the Norwegian energy minister Terje Aasland didn’t mince his words when he told the Financial Times that “it’s an absolutely shit situation”. Renegotiating energy relations with Europe is now set to become an election issue — “a crunch moment for EU-Norway relations,” as one EU ambassador in Oslo put it.
Sweden, which is also affected by the price hikes, was even more explicit about who and what is to blame. The Swedish energy minister Ebba Busch told the newspaper Aftonbladet that “Germany’s energy system isn’t right”. On X she added: “it is a result of decommissioned nuclear power. When it’s not windy, we get high electricity prices”. If Germany was able to produce more electricity for the European network, she argued, prices would stay lower for all of us.
It’s time for Germany to wake up to the reality that cheap, clean and reliable energy doesn’t become a reality by occupying the moral high ground. With snap elections scheduled for February 2025, now is an ideal moment to rethink past mistakes on energy, particularly the nuclear exit. If the next government in Berlin carries on in the same vein as its predecessors, Germany risks not only the stability of its energy supply but also that of its relations with its European neighbours.
Source: Unherd
