Emulating the demand-aggregation approach Boeing used for the 787 Dreamliner could create a “committed orderbook” of 5-10 new reactors of the same design and cut near-term deployment costs, DOE says.
- Faster-than-expected load growth and Inflation Reduction Act incentives have spurred “a step change in the valuation of the existing [nuclear] fleet and new reactors,” the U.S. Department of Energy said late last month in a major update to its Pathways to Commercial Liftoff: Advanced Nuclear report.
- To serve power-hungry AI data centers and other large customers, near-term investment is needed to extend the operating lifespan of existing U.S. nuclear reactors, expand their generating capacity through power uprates and build an orderbook that enables deployment of multiple new reactors of the same design, the report said.
- A “consortium approach” like Boeing used to build its 787 Dreamliner order book “is going to help us aggregate demand and push through [the] first mover disadvantage…spreading costs and risks over the subsequent reactors such that there’s no benefit to waiting for the fifth project,” DOE Chief Commercialization Officer Vanessa Chan said in an Oct. 4 webinar on the report.
Dive Insight:
The U.S. nuclear landscape has changed since DOE published its original advanced nuclear liftoff report in March 2023, Chan said on the call.
The original report came out less than a year after Entergy closed the 800-MW Palisades nuclear generating station in southwest Michigan and sold the facility to Holtec International for decommissioning.
Now, Holtec is working toward restarting Palisades next October and Constellation Energy last month announced a 20-year deal with Microsoft to restart operations in 2028 at Three Mile Island unit 1, the 835-MW Pennsylvania plant shuttered in 2019.
Operators of large-scale data centers are interested in operational nuclear plants as well. A data center colocation agreement — through which Amazon Web Services could purchase up to 960 MW of power from Talen Energy’s 2,228-MW Susquehanna nuclear power plant — sparked a formal protest earlier this year from utilities AEP and Exelon, which argued the agreement would increase costs for ratepayers.
Many data center operators have ambitious net-zero targets and require emissions-free power around the clock. Power system modeling suggests the U.S. needs roughly 700 GW to 900 GW of additional clean, firm generating capacity, according to the updated liftoff report. The U.S. was one of more than 20 national signatories last year on a global pledge to triple nuclear power generation by 2050, a commitment that would grow domestic generating capacity from about 100 GW today to about 300 GW in 26 years.
Reaching this goal will require a mix of Generation III+ and Generation IV reactors, the updated liftoff report said. Gen III+ reactor designs, such as the AP-1000s built at Plant Vogtle units 3 and 4, are water-cooled, use low-enriched uranium fuel and have passive safety systems. Gen IV designs, such as the Natrium design that TerraPower is building in southwest Wyoming, use coolants other than water, run on novel fuel forms that may require more highly enriched uranium, and can in many cases provide heat for industrial processes in addition to electricity.
So far in 2024, Congress has authorized $2.7 billion in funding to develop a domestic nuclear fuel supply chain, earmarked $900 million to support Gen III+ reactors and directed the NRC to improve licensing efficiency for all reactor types with the passage of the ADVANCE Act, the updated liftoff report noted.
Future reactors will need to be sized to meet grid and end-user needs, the report said. Large light-water reactors like the 1,117-MW AP-1000 are ideal for cost-effective bulk electricity generation. Small modular reactors with nameplate capacity between 50 MW and 350 MW are better-suited to replace retiring coal units’ bulk generation and can provide local process heat for industrial users. Microreactors sized under 50 MW can replace expensive alternatives, such as diesel generation, in remote communities, military bases and mining regions, according to the report.
Existing U.S. nuclear power plant sites could host up to 95 GW of new nuclear capacity, while retired or retiring coal power plants could host up to about 170 GW, making them attractive for near-term deployments, DOE said in the updated liftoff report and a separate report released last month.
Expanding existing nuclear sites’ fencelines into surrounding undeveloped lands further increases their potential for additional generating capacity, DOE Loan Programs Office Director of Strategy Julie Kozeracki said on the webinar.
“[Host communities] really understand the benefits that nuclear brings…in terms of quality, high-paying jobs and the tax base,” Kozeracki said.
New reactor deployments should begin in 2030 and ramp up to 13 GW/year by 2041 to keep the U.S. on pace for 200 GW of new capacity by 2050, the liftoff report said. Delaying the first deployments until 2035 would require an eventual pace of 20+ GW/year and could raise total capital requirements by as much as 50%, the report said.
But utilities and other end-users remain reluctant to bankroll new reactors.
“Everyone is in line to be seventh, eighth or ninth…no one is in line to be first, second or third,” Chan said on the webinar.
Aggregating demand sufficient to support a “committed order book” of 5-10 reactors of the same design could drive down development costs and reduce project risk, according to the updated liftoff report. A group of utilities or large end-users, such as tech companies, could aggregate the necessary demand, Kozeracki said on the webinar.
The Nuclear Company announced plans earlier this year to deploy an initial 6-GW reactor fleet by the mid-2030s using an unspecified, already-approved design. The startup, whose leadership team includes nuclear and renewable energy veterans, said it would work to convene “a consortium of utilities and independent power producers, hyperscalers, nuclear technology suppliers and private equity [firms].”
A serial development approach could be more efficient than the buildout of the current U.S. nuclear fleet, which comprises about 50 unique designs, Kozeracki said.
“We’ve effectively done [more than] 50 first-of-a-kind projects,” she said.
Source: Utility Dive
