The U.S. and EU have a window of opportunity to regain lost ground. From Eurasianet.
Far removed from the battlefields of Ukraine, the United States, European Union, and Russia are facing off on a second front in a struggle over the nuclear energy sector and control of uranium supply chains. While the war in Ukraine may have ground to a stalemate amid a halting search for a ceasefire, Russia is clearly winning the fight over nuclear energy – at least for now.
Rosatom, the Russian state-controlled nuclear entity, holds a commanding position in the decarbonized power sector, which allows the Kremlin to punch far above its geopolitical weight class and deepen key economic relationships in defiance of Western sanctions, all while filling the government’s coffers with much-needed funds to stay in the fight in Ukraine. By some estimates, Rosatom has captured 50 percent of the global nuclear energy market, even operating in NATO member states, namely Turkey and Hungary.
Not having been subjected to Western sanctions to date, Rosatom has seen its revenues climb from about $12 billion in 2022, the year Russia unleashed its full-scale attack on Ukraine, to $18 billion last year, a 50 percent increase over two years. Today, Rosatom is building 26 of the 59 nuclear reactors currently under construction in the world, only two of which are in Russia.
Rosatom’s grip on the international market stands to grow even tighter over the near term, given its strengthening influence over supplies of uranium needed to operate reactors. A coup that made few headlines in 2023 resulted in the toppling of a pro-Western government in the African state of Niger, an outcome with major ramifications for the global uranium supply chain. Niger mines about 5 percent of global high-grade uranium ore supplies. Russia now controls those supplies, as U.S. and French forces have withdrawn from the country. This undermines the resilience of the French nuclear sector and deepens U.S. dependence on Russian imports of enriched uranium.
A recent article in Le Monde described Africa as a frontline between Russia and the West. If that is the case, the fight there is mainly over uranium and other critical minerals. This key fact helps to explain why Russia has worked so hard to reduce French and U.S. influence on the continent. The loss of Niger will surely have a detrimental impact on France, the country’s former colonial overlord, which became a nuclear power in part because of its access to Niger’s uranium.
Russia’s broader outreach across the Sahel region includes security partnerships, resource deals, and propaganda campaigns, but these tools of statecraft are anchored in Russia’s proven ability to extract and refine natural resources that are critical for the development of nuclear energy. Indeed, Russia’s expansion into Africa demonstrates an unrelenting focus on controlling every part of the nuclear energy supply chain, from sourcing raw materials to constructing, maintaining, and decommissioning reactors.
The Kremlin has long maintained a dominant position over Central Asia’s uranium supplies. According to the World Nuclear Alliance, Kazakhstan is responsible for producing an estimated 43 percent of the world’s supply, while Uzbekistan produces 6.7 percent, and Russia itself 5.1 percent. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan export uranium to various countries, but Russia presently retains an ability to pressure Astana and Tashkent in ways that can potentially disrupt uranium supplies to other countries.
Russian nuclear diplomacy extends far beyond Africa and Central Asia. Thanks to its influence over uranium supply chains, Russia has found ready partners in Southeast Asia, where it trades energy for diplomatic backing. In the words of one analyst quoted in a New York Times report on ties between Russia and Myanmar, “Russia is the last diplomatic resort” for states sanctioned by the West. More than that, Russia offers its partnership to states looking for a middle ground between the U.S. and China, as demonstrated by a recent partnership with Vietnam.
Moscow can even use its uranium-supply-chain power as leverage in its dealings with the United States. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, 12 percent of uranium imports to the U.S. flow in from Russia, in addition to 36 percent from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. To counter this potential vulnerability, the Trump administration adopted rules in March to boost domestic production of critical minerals, including uranium.
While the Kremlin now has the upper hand in the global rivalry over nuclear energy and associated supply chains, its longer-term dominance is far from assured. The U.S. and EU now have an opportunity to claw back a share of the market in Central Asia, Russia’s backyard.
So far, nuclear energy and critical minerals have dominated Central Asia’s diplomatic agenda in 2025. Two states in the region, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have formal plans in place to build at least two nuclear reactors, likely more. Discussions have also taken place on building nuclear power plants in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Critically, regional leaders have not yet made any decisions on who will get the lucrative construction and maintenance contracts for the envisioned facilities. They have indicated a preference to strengthen the sovereignty of their respective states by diversifying investments in the nuclear energy and mining sectors. Uzbekistan, in particular, is leery of excessive Russian influence over Tashkent’s economic affairs.
U.S. and European leaders, meanwhile, have expressed keen interest in helping Central Asian states develop nuclear power capabilities, and in the region’s rare earths. The Central Asia-EU summit that concluded 4 April spent a lot of time talking about enhancing cooperation in the mining sector.
The mutual interest is evident. Now, it is up to the United States and European Union to follow through on all their talk and come through with solid and substantial investments to recapture market share, and, ultimately, weaken Russia’s global reach. So long as Russia continues to dominate the world’s nuclear energy markets, it will continue to threaten Ukraine – and the world.
Source: Transitions
